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and quarrying helping support growth despite a softer-than-expected outcome. The outlook for 2026 is still positive, but it is more fragile because imported energy costs and external shocks could quickly feed into inflation and slow momentum.
Growth in 2025 came in at 4.6%, slightly below the 4.7% recorded in 2024 and under the finance ministry’s earlier 5.0% estimate. Official data showed the expansion was broad-based, with agriculture still doing important work for the economy, alongside construction and extractive industries. That pattern suggests Kenya is growing, but not yet at a pace strong enough to fully absorb risks from rising global uncertainty.
The bigger concern is the country’s heavy dependence on imported energy. Because Kenya relies on global oil flows, any disruption in international shipping routes can push up fuel costs quickly, and that then affects transport, food distribution, and wider business activity. Officials have already warned that the latest conflict in the Middle East could force the country to work harder to secure essential supplies.
Inflation is one of the first channels through which this pressure can show up. When fuel becomes more expensive, production and transport costs rise across the economy, and households feel it almost immediately in daily spending. For a country where many consumers are already sensitive to changes in prices, even a moderate increase can weaken purchasing power and reduce overall demand.
The risk is especially important for 2026 because it comes at a time when the economy is still adjusting to uneven sector performance. The statistics office expects growth to improve to 4.9% next year, but that forecast assumes a relatively stable operating environment. If oil prices remain elevated or shipping disruptions persist, that projection could prove too optimistic.
For Kenya, the challenge is not only about short-term growth numbers but also about resilience. Imported energy dependence means the country remains exposed to shocks far beyond its borders, and those shocks can quickly affect inflation, exchange-rate pressure, and the cost of doing business. That makes the 2026 outlook look stronger on paper than it may feel in practice.
