Military Seizes Power in Guinea-Bissau; Election Results Suspended, Borders Closed
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A faction of army officers announced on 26 November 2025 that they have deposed President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, suspended the 2025 presidential vote results, closed land, sea and air borders, and imposed a nationwide curfew. The officers declared the formation of a new governing body, the High Military Command for the Restoration of Order, which they said will rule “until further notice.” Reports of sustained gunfire near key government and electoral institutions in the capital, Bissau, preceded the takeover.
The coup occurred just one day before provisional election results were to be announced — a vote both the incumbent Embaló and challenger Fernando Dias had claimed to win. Amid claims of vote manipulation and drug-trafficking interference, the military cited a “destabilization plan” involving national politicians and criminal networks as justification for the takeover. Several high-ranking officials, including electoral-commission members and security-force commanders, reportedly remain detained under the military’s orders.
Guinea-Bissau, a small West-African country of roughly two million people, has repeatedly experienced coups since independence. This takeover marks the ninth successful or attempted coup since 1974, underscoring the persistent fragility of its political institutions.
Elevated Security & Operational Risk. The abrupt institutional breakdown and border closures increase risks across trade, transport, and logistics corridors. Regional supply chains especially goods transiting through Bissau face longer delays and elevated insurance and security costs.
Uncertain Investment Climate. Political instability, coupled with a break in constitutional order, raises sovereign-risk premiums. Planned investments, foreign-direct investment flows, and financing windows may freeze as investors await signals of institutional stability.
Regional Contagion Risk. Given Guinea-Bissau’s role as a maritime and transit hub including illicit-trafficking exposure instability may trigger cross-border spillover effects, pressuring regional risk assessments, credit exposure, and trade corridors across West Africa.
Need to Monitor Diplomatic & Multilateral Pressures. International reaction from neighbouring states, regional blocs, and multilateral institutions will influence prospects for a return to constitutional order. Sanctions, diplomatic isolation, or external interventions could reshape regulatory and investment conditions rapidly.
