South Africa inflation expectations ease after 3% target adoption
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Inflation expectations in South Africa declined for 2026 and 2027 after the government adopted a 3% inflation target, according to a fourth-quarter survey of businesses, trade unions and analysts released Friday. The survey, conducted from November 17 to December 4 for the South African Reserve Bank, captured responses following Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s November 12 announcement of the first target revision in 25 years.
Respondents now expect inflation of 3.8% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, down from prior forecasts of 4.2% for both years. Analysts projected the lowest readings at 3.5% for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027, while businesses anticipate 3.9% and 4.0%, and trade union officials foresee 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively.
The South African Reserve Bank’s next policy decision comes January 29, following its 25 basis-point cut to the key lending rate on November 20.
