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The South African rand strengthened in early trade on Monday, supported by lower oil prices and hopes of progress in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. Investors are now turning their attention to the South African Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision later this week.
At 0541 GMT, the rand traded at 16.3375 to the dollar, about 0.8% stronger than its previous close. The move came as oil prices fell to two-week lows on optimism that Washington and Tehran were moving closer to a peace deal.
Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump said the two sides had “largely negotiated” an understanding that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway carried a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the conflict.
Domestic focus is now on the central bank’s rate decision on Thursday. Nedbank economists expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise rates by 25 basis points, lifting the repo rate to 7% and the prime rate to 10.50%.
The bank said higher petrol prices could feed into inflation expectations and increase the risk of second-round effects. It argued that tightening now could keep the shock temporary and reduce the need for stronger action later.
Investors will also watch the composite leading business cycle indicator on Tuesday and producer inflation data on Thursday. South Africa’s benchmark 2035 government bond also firmed in early trade, with the yield falling 4.5 basis points to 8.635%.
