South African rand stutters around 16/$ mark while traders eye rate decision next week
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The South African rand slipped on Friday but stayed close to the 16-per-dollar level as investors looked ahead to next week’s interest rate decision for signals on the central bank’s policy stance.
At 1449 GMT, the rand traded at 16.1825 per dollar, about 0.3% weaker than Thursday’s close but still near its strongest level since June 2022. Citadel Global director Bianca Botes said the currency has been supported by record-high gold prices, improved fiscal indicators, a credible central bank and sustained dollar weakness, and added the rand has gained more than 2% against the dollar since the start of 2026.
Botes said a move to 16.00 per dollar “appears plausible” if gold remains above $4,800 an ounce and dollar weakness persists. The dollar was last flat against a basket of currencies, while gold edged toward another record high of $5,000 an ounce amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Botes cautioned that South Africa’s weak growth outlook, uncertainty around its continued inclusion in the African Growth and Opportunity Act, reliance on a potentially overvalued gold price and the rand’s inherent volatility suggest recent gains may be fragile. The South African Reserve Bank is due to announce its monetary policy decision next week after cutting its main lending rate by 25 basis points in November.
South African equities were firmer, with the JSE Top-40 index up 0.7%. The benchmark 2035 government bond also firmed, with the yield falling 9 basis points to 8.165%.
