L’industrie pétrolière du Soudan du Sud sous tension face aux menaces du Soudan et à l’incertitude sur l’avenir des exportations

South Sudan’s oil sector, the economic backbone of the world’s youngest country, finds itself at a critical crossroads as regional instability and mounting threats to export routes put its fragile recovery at risk.

For months, South Sudan’s oil production has been caught in the crossfire of Sudan’s internal conflict. The pipeline that carries South Sudanese crude to Port Sudan on the Red Sea—its only export lifeline—has been repeatedly threatened with closure by Sudanese armed forces. Just last month, Sudan’s army issued stark warnings that oil flows could be shut off, jeopardizing the vital revenues that finance nearly all of South Sudan’s public spending. Government officials in Juba have expressed deep anxiety that a full halt could spell economic catastrophe for their already embattled nation.

Despite these threats, South Sudan is pressing ahead with efforts to stabilize and expand its oil output. In January, the Ministry of Petroleum instructed the Dar Petroleum Operating Company (DPOC) to resume full production after extended shutdowns and disruptions in 2024. According to industry data, the country is now producing approximately 104,000 barrels of oil per day—a figure expected to rise modestly to about 111,000 barrels per day by 2029 as new investment trickles into the sector.

However, the near-total dependence on Sudan’s infrastructure for exports remains a glaring vulnerability. Each day, oil revenues estimated at $7 million are at risk of evaporating if political or military turmoil leads to a border closure or pipeline sabotage. The consequences would be dire for government salaries, social programs, and the broader economy, which is still recovering from years of conflict and instability.

Amid these uncertainties, analysts point to both opportunity and risk. The global energy market remains interested in South Sudan’s untapped reserves, and new exploration blocks are under discussion as part of long-term plans to attract investment and modernize the industry. A recent market report forecasts gradual but steady growth in the country’s upstream oil sector over the next six years, provided security and export routes can be assured.

Yet the shadow of Sudan’s conflict looms large. As regional negotiations continue, observers stress that South Sudan’s government must prioritize diversification to reduce its reliance on oil. Calls are growing for investment in agriculture, renewable energy, and infrastructure that could buffer the country from external shocks.

For now, the fate of South Sudan’s economy hangs in the balance, hostage to forces beyond its control. While oil continues to flow—for today—the future remains uncertain, and the country’s leaders face mounting pressure to chart a more secure and sustainable path forward.

‍