2026 Outlook For Africa: Uncertainty Is The New Certainty
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Since Covid-19, African countries have demonstrated resilience despite adversities. President Trump’s second term introduced aggressive tariffs on April 2, 2025 “Liberation Day,” hitting nearly all African nations—Lesotho at 60%, South Africa 31%, Mauritius 50%—later negotiated down to 10% baseline except South Africa’s 30%.
Global growth hovers at 2.8% post-2023, projected to slow to 2.6% in 2026 with advanced economies at 1.6% and emerging markets at 4.0%. 53% of chief economists polled by the Centre for the New Economy and Society anticipate global weakening next year.
SSA’s top performers include Guinea (7.5%), Benin (7.3%), Ethiopia (7.2%), Rwanda (7.0%) and Zimbabwe (6.6%) for 2026. Major economies Egypt (4.3%), Algeria (3.5%), Nigeria (4.4%), Morocco (4.4%) and Kenya (4.9%) sustain above-4% forecasts, while South Africa lags at 1.4%.
The 2026 Global Risks Perception Survey flags 50% expecting turbulent outlook in two years, rising to 57% over ten years. Geoeconomic confrontation and state-based armed conflicts top risks, with Africa facing coups in Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Niger, Sudan plus Islamist activity and civil wars.
Foreign powers intensify involvement—China’s security push, Russia’s aid to juntas, US/France bases, Gulf states’ bases and investments in the Horn/East Africa. Mitigation strategies include leveraging natural resources in trade talks and accelerating AfCFTA integration to boost intra-African trade.
