Africa Confronts $90bn Debt Repayment Wall In 2026 Amid Rising Rollover Risks
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In its latest African sovereign outlook, S&P analyst Benjamin Young highlighted structurally high debt, low and concentrated revenue bases, and peaking repayment schedules as key vulnerabilities.
Egypt leads with nearly one‑third of the total at $27 billion in principal repayments, followed by Angola, South Africa and Nigeria.
Average sovereign ratings in the region have hit their highest since late 2020 on reform momentum and growth, but this reflects stabilisation of credit metrics rather than major improvements, as debt‑reduction reforms take time, S&P noted.
Easier global financial conditions have allowed some sovereigns to return to capital markets, though issuers like Republic of Congo faced double‑digit yields, prompting off‑market tools such as private placements and total return swaps.
S&P projects steady 4.5% real GDP growth in 2026 with fiscal deficits narrowing to 3.5% of GDP, but debt will remain elevated around 61% of GDP; several countries are using liability management like buybacks and maturity extensions to mitigate refinancing risks.
Notable users include Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Uganda, Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Kenya and South Africa.
