Africa Faces Sharper Growth Slowdown if Conflict Drags On
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African economies face the risk of a sharper growth slowdown this year if the war in the Middle East drags on, with prolonged disruption to trade, energy and fertiliser supplies threatening to ripple across the continent. A report released on Thursday by two UN agencies, the African Union and the African Development Bank said the impact could deepen if shipping routes and energy flows remain disrupted for months.
The report said African economies could lose 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth in 2026 if the conflict lasts more than six months. It warned that the longer the conflict continues, the greater the risk of a significant slowdown across the continent, especially if energy and fertiliser supplies remain constrained.
The report did not quantify the likely inflation hit, but it said the conflict could quickly become a cost-of-living crisis through higher fuel and food prices. It also said some African countries could be hit harder by fertiliser shortages than by higher oil prices, with Gulf LNG disruption threatening ammonia and urea production during the key March-to-May planting season.
The Middle East accounts for 15.8% of Africa’s imports and 10.9% of its exports, the report said. It added that a few countries, including oil producer Nigeria and LNG exporter Mozambique, could benefit from higher prices, even as most import-dependent economies face more pressure.
Rerouted transport is already increasing traffic through the Port of Maputo in Mozambique, Durban in South Africa, Walvis Bay in Namibia and Mauritius. In East Africa, Kenya is emerging as a logistics hub through Lamu Port and Nairobi, while Ethiopia is benefiting from its role as an emergency air bridge linking Asia, Africa and Europe through Ethiopian Airlines.
The report urged governments to strengthen domestic revenue collection, coordinate fuel procurement, establish emergency food corridors, save windfall oil revenues and deploy targeted social protection. Claver Gatete, executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, said it was still too early to quantify the impact on inflation and growth or identify which countries and sectors would be worst hit.
