Africa M&A Activity Holds Firm, Set to Persist Strongly into 2026 Amid Uncertainty
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Industries
South Africa led continental deal value at 35%, followed by Kenya (20%) and Egypt (15%), with Egypt topping deal volume at over 200 versus under 200 for South Africa. Morocco saw nearly 100 deals, up 65% from 2024. Inbound foreign acquirers included Switzerland ($3.4bn/6 deals), Japan ($3.0bn/8 deals), UK ($2.7bn/35 deals), and US (50 deals).
Consumer sector dominated volume/value with over 180 deals, led by Coca-Cola HBC AG's $2.6bn acquisition of Coca-Cola Beverages South Africa. Energy ranked second in value: Vitol's $1.65bn for 30% Eni Baleine (Côte d’Ivoire), Tullow assets to UAE Gulf Energy (Kenya), Shell Nigeria $510m for TotalEnergies 12.5% Bonga stake. Financial services deal numbers rose notably.
Mega deals ≥$1bn totaled five, matching 2024: Asahi $2.3bn Diageo Kenya breweries, Vodafone/Vodacom $1.6bn 15% Safaricom, UAE Black Caspian ~$1bn Alexandria Container (Egypt); outbound Gold Fields $3.7bn Gold Road Resources.
Private capital stayed stable per African Private Capital Association (AVCA), with North Africa growth in food/agribusiness and VC tech; notable: Africa Lighthouse Capital 11.07% Bayport Financial (Botswana). Mining interest rises for critical minerals.
Regulations tighten FDI with local content/social responsibility conditions varying by jurisdiction, balancing incentives and public policy. Outlook: Geopolitical/economic pressures persist but inbound stability forecasts strong 2026 M&A, bolstered by neutral critical minerals/energy exports (e.g., US-EU Lobito Corridor, DFC $553m loan).
