Africa’s Infrastructure Investment Gap: Scaling to $155 Billion Annually Could Double GDP by 2040

Africa must lift annual infrastructure investment from the current USD 83 billion to roughly USD 155 billion to stay on track with Agenda 2063 and potentially double GDP by 2040. The projected expansion would raise annual growth by an additional 4.5 percentage points, but achieving it requires navigating tightening fiscal conditions and shrinking official development finance.

Governments presently account for 41 percent of infrastructure spending, development partners provide 48 percent, and private investors supply the remainder. Yet between 2019 and 2023, 15 African countries diverted more funds to debt servicing than to infrastructure investment. Further pressure looms as official development assistance is expected to decline by 9 percent in 2024 and 17 percent in 2025. Priority investments include high-return transport corridors, rail networks, fibre-optic connectivity, and solar energy infrastructure that link regional markets and support industrialisation. Strengthening public-private partnerships, improving data transparency, and embedding climate, social, and ecological risk management are central to mobilising capital at scale.

Relative to economic size, African economies must invest three times more than Latin America and the Caribbean and five times more than developing Asia, generating returns that are three and nine times higher respectively. These returns hinge on regulatory clarity, bankable project pipelines supported by initiatives such as the PIDA Quality Label, and governance systems that reduce costs and ensure maintenance. With declining multilateral support and China’s reduced Belt and Road financing since 2016, private capital will play a decisive role in bridging the continent’s funding gap and anchoring integration into global value chains.

‍