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Industries
Africa’s demand for refined petroleum products will climb 50% from 4 million barrels per day in 2024 to more than 6 million bpd by 2050, according to the African Energy Chamber’s 2026 Outlook Report, propelled by population growth to 2.4 billion and GDP expansion to $7.8 trillion at annual rates of 3.8-3.9%. The continent, which accounts for 18% of the global population, currently represents under 5% of worldwide oil product consumption and 3% of GDP.
Gasoline demand will reach 2.2 million bpd by 2050, led by Nigeria, while diesel consumption grows by 880,000 bpd to 2.7 million bpd, driven primarily by mining activity in Central and Southern Africa including Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Jet fuel and kerosene demand will surpass pre-pandemic levels as early as 2025 and rise 65% to 465,000 bpd, supported by increased intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area and tourism recovery. LPG demand could double from under 20 million tonnes annually if regulatory and financing gaps are addressed, potentially serving over 900 million current biomass users while achieving 98% particulate emission reductions and saving 1.2 million hectares of forest.
Nigeria’s Dangote refinery currently operates at 500,000 bpd capacity and targets expansion to 650,000 bpd by mid-2025 and 1.4 million bpd by 2028.
The report highlights that meeting regional refining needs through 2050 will require downstream investments exceeding $20 billion.
