Ivory Coast Faces Third Year of Sharp Cocoa Production Decline as Structural Pressures Deepen
Quidah is an online platform that connects investors with curated opportunities and expert insights on Africa’s emerging markets, while offering businesses promotional services, partnership facilitation, and market intelligence to attract capital and grow their operations.
Industries
Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is bracing for a third consecutive year of significant output losses, with the 2025/26 main crop projected to fall sharply due to persistent climate stress, aging plantations, and chronic underinvestment. The Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) has already sold around "1.3 million tons" of forward contracts, down from "1.4 million tons" a year earlier, and industry sources warn that arrivals at key ports could plunge by "30 percent"between January and March 2026.
Preliminary data from the CCC points to a "25–30 percent reduction" in the current intermediate crop, with further downside risks tied to drought conditions expected during the harmattan season. Crop diseases continue to spread across older plantations, while farmer capital constraints limit replanting and fertilizer use. Smuggling flows from Guinea and Liberia, which previously helped offset supply gaps, have fallen sharply this year widening the deficit.
To stabilize the domestic market, the CCC plans to conduct stock audits and restrict exporter purchases, offering intermediate crop volumes only on a spot basis to safeguard grinding activity. Despite tightening supply, officials maintain that default risk on existing contracts remains low.
The sustained production slump poses broader implications for global cocoa markets, where tight physical supply has already amplified price volatility. Exporters, processors, and confectionery manufacturers face rising input costs, thinner margins, and increased hedging pressure. For Ivory Coast, prolonged output declines threaten farmer livelihoods, foreign-exchange earnings, and fiscal revenue.
West Africa’s cocoa sector now sits at a critical juncture. Structural constraints, climate variability, and limited investment in productivity and disease-resistant plant material are converging into a multi-year supply squeeze. Market participants will be watching closely for government and private-sector interventions aimed at stabilizing production, improving farmer financing, and accelerating replanting programs.
Industry sources within the CCC describe the situation as a decisive phase for supply management. Without effective mitigation, global market instability and prolonged price disruption remain likely.
