Rand Edges Lower as Moody’s Keeps South Africa’s Credit Rating and Outlook Unchanged

The South African rand eased on Monday after Moody’s Ratings affirmed the country’s Ba2 sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, ahead of data expected to shed light on fourth‑quarter demand and output trends. By 12:52 GMT, the rand traded at 16.97 per dollar, around 0.2% weaker than Friday’s close. Moody’s said the decision reflected South Africa’s “low growth potential” and a high but stable debt burden.​

“The stable outlook reflects our expectation that while economic growth is likely to improve, it will remain modest, with the government’s debt burden remaining elevated, albeit stable, over the medium term,” Moody’s noted. Nedbank economists said in a client note last week that they had expected Moody’s to at least revise the outlook to positive from stable, citing improved fiscal discipline and trade performance, especially after S&P Global Ratings upgraded South Africa’s foreign‑currency rating to BB with a positive outlook on 14 November.​

Investors are now awaiting retail sales, mining, and manufacturing data later this week, while global markets watch the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision. On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top‑40 index slipped 1%, and the yield on South Africa’s benchmark 2035 government bond held at 8.41%.​

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