West and Central Africa: Heightened Security, Health, and Funding Pressures Raise Operational Risk
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Escalating conflict in eastern DRC, humanitarian service suspensions in Ituri, a growing Rift Valley Fever outbreak in Senegal, and reinforced border controls ahead of Côte d’Ivoire’s legislative elections are raising operational and security costs for investors and operators across West and Central Africa. These developments signal increased risk premiums, tighter logistics conditions, and potential delays in project execution and cross-border trade.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Violence Intensifies in Lubero Territory
Armed groups attacked Byambwe village in Lubero Territory on 14 November, burning a health centre, killing at least 17 patients, abducting health workers, and looting supplies.
Since 13 November, at least 29 civilians have been killed and more than 2,500 people displaced across multiple villages. Humanitarian groups are requesting reinforced security to maintain access and operational continuity.
Ituri Province: Funding Cuts Trigger Humanitarian Service Gaps
OCHA reported on 14 November that over 60 displacement sites hosting nearly 280,000 people are facing sharply deteriorating conditions after October funding cuts halted camp-management services.
Suspended operations include protection support, WASH, health, emergency education, and shelter coordination.
Authorities estimate more than 1 million people remain displaced across Ituri, increasing pressure on local systems and raising risk for adjacent labour and trade hubs.
Senegal: Rift Valley Fever Outbreak Expands
Senegal’s Health Ministry and WHO confirmed 459 cases and 31 deaths as of 16 November across 10 regions and 33 districts.
A national response plan through January 2026 prioritises treatment, surveillance, vaccination, inter-sector coordination, and risk communication, though gaps in community outreach remain.
The outbreak poses material risk to livestock value chains, transport networks, and cross-border trade.
Côte d’Ivoire: Security Tightens Ahead of December Polls
Côte d’Ivoire’s National Security Council has reinforced security along the northern border amid increased arrivals of Malian refugees and ordered formal registration of new asylum seekers.
Authorities are keeping 44,000 security personnel deployed through the 27 December legislative elections and extending a ban on political demonstrations until January 2026.
The measures reduce near-term protest risk but signal elevated political-event uncertainty.
Investor Implications
The attack on health infrastructure in eastern DRC highlights rising security threats that increase insurance costs, workforce-mobility challenges, and last-mile logistics constraints.
In Ituri, halted humanitarian services heighten protection and public-health risks that may spill into nearby economic centres, raising contingency budgets and delaying project timelines.
Senegal’s RVF outbreak threatens livestock-dependent economies through mortality, productivity losses, and potential movement restrictions.
Côte d’Ivoire’s tightened security posture lowers immediate disruption probabilities but underscores policy and event-driven uncertainty as elections approach.
