Africa Practice Sees U.S. Tariffs, Gulf Mining Driving 2026 Trends
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Africa Practice consultancy identifies U.S. tariffs post-Trump's 2024 re-election, Gulf mining investments and debt pressures as 2026 shapers for African markets. Key 2025 events include BRICS Rio summit (Ramaphosa, Ahmed, Madbouly, Tinubu attendance), Johannesburg G20 renewable/debt pledges (Trump boycott), UAE majority stake in DRC's Alphamin Bisie tin, Saudi $10B and Qatar $21B DRC/$70B regional mining commitments.
Trump's April 2025 tariffs hit AGOA users like Lesotho (50% duties risk 35,000 apparel jobs, 15% GDP); China countered with zero tariffs for 53 African partners. COP30 Belém launched $5.5B Tropical Forest Facility ($25B target). South Africa's G20 panel found debt service tops social spending for 650M+ Africans. EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism starts Jan 2026, pressuring SA steel/aluminium exports.
Ghana/Zambia/Senegal debt cases expose restructuring gaps (Senegal: $8B hidden debt, 14% deficit, 130% GDP public debt). Risks: Uganda/Ethiopia elections, Sahel coups, Sudan/DRC wars (150k+ Sudanese dead). Upside: Gulf EV minerals, EU €4.7B Global Gateway (SA green H2/PGMs), Africa Credit Rating Agency launch, Senegal/Gabon LNG/forest plays.
