Hormuz Crisis Fertiliser Shortage Threatens African Crop Yields Food Security

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most sensitive chokepoints, and recent insecurity has sharply reduced vessel movements, rattling energy and shipping markets even without a formal closure. The disruption is not confined to one waterway: rerouted traffic in the Red Sea and surrounding lanes is lengthening voyages, raising costs, and adding pressure to global trade and humanitarian supply chains.

Its importance comes from the scale of the flows it carries. Roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil and LNG trade passes through the area, so even short-lived disruptions can trigger price volatility and force shipping companies to alter routes, schedules, and insurance arrangements. That creates a ripple effect across fuel markets, port logistics, and downstream industries that depend on predictable delivery.

Fertilizers are also highly exposed, especially nitrogen-based products linked to gas-intensive production in Gulf economies. When gas supply, shipping access, or export confidence is disrupted, fertilizer costs rise quickly, and that matters most during the spring planting season when farmers and governments are making purchase decisions for the next harvest. If buyers cannot secure supply at affordable prices, crop yields can fall later in the year, feeding into higher food prices.

The countries least able to absorb those shocks are typically the least developed and most import-dependent economies. Higher fuel, food, fertilizer, and transport costs strain household budgets and public finances at the same time, making it harder for governments to stabilize markets or expand social support. For many of these countries, a shipping disruption becomes a broader development problem rather than a narrow transport issue.

Food security is especially vulnerable where imports cover a large share of consumption. When maritime routes become less reliable, deliveries slow and costs rise, and that can reduce the amount of food available in local markets. In countries already facing climate stress, conflict, or debt pressure, even a modest supply interruption can deepen insecurity and widen inequality.

UNCTAD’s role is to track those wider consequences and help governments and partners respond with data, coordination, and policy support. Its message is that secure, predictable maritime transport is not just a commercial concern but a global public interest tied to international law, trade stability, and humanitarian access. The practical challenge now is keeping supply chains open while reducing the economic damage from every new shock.

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