Nigeria's Central Bank Forecasts 4.49% Growth, 12.94% Inflation for 2026
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Nigeria's Central Bank released its 2026 economic outlook on December 30 projecting 4.49% GDP growth and average inflation of 12.94%, driven by structural reforms, stable currency markets, and improved oil output. The bank stated growth momentum builds on the Tinubu administration's oil, tax, and foreign exchange restructuring.
CBN assumptions include $55 per barrel oil prices, exchange rate near 1,400 naira per dollar, and 1.50 million barrels daily crude output. External reserves forecast rising to $51.04 billion with a $18.81 billion current account surplus from stronger oil/non-oil exports and remittances.
Fiscal policy projects expansionary spending yielding a 12.14 trillion naira deficit (3.01% of GDP), financed mainly through domestic borrowing. The bank held its benchmark rate at 27% in November against market expectations of a 100 basis-point cut after September's first reduction since 2020.
Inflation averaged 21.26% in 2025 but slowed to 14.45% in November for the eighth consecutive month on easing food/fuel prices and steadier forex conditions. CBN cut the deposit rate alongside the November hold as a confidence signal while consolidating disinflation.
